According to @KobeissiLetter, Japanese investors held a combined $2.22 trillion in US bonds and stocks at the end of 2024, based on Bank of Japan data, highlighting their outsized role in US asset demand, source: Bank of Japan data cited by @KobeissiLetter. The tweet adds that the next largest exposures are via the Cayman Islands and France at $834 billion and $179 billion respectively, with the UK also noted though the excerpted figure is not shown, source: Bank of Japan data cited by @KobeissiLetter. For traders, the scale of Japanese capital flows is a critical liquidity and pricing driver for US Treasuries and equities, making Bank of Japan policy signals and yen dynamics important catalysts to monitor, source: Bank of Japan data cited by @KobeissiLetter.

According to @DowdEdward, TLT has based for over 18 months after a 55% drawdown, with weekly volume running 40–60% above the 2015–2019 average, indicating institutional accumulation at depressed prices (source: @DowdEdward citing Common Sense Investor). According to @DowdEdward, price is holding above the 2023 lows near 85–87, weekly RSI has normalized to 40–45, and downside momentum has stalled while volatility compresses, supporting a constructive technical base for a US Treasury duration trade (source: @DowdEdward). According to @DowdEdward, on the macro side long yields have stopped making higher highs, and historically TLT tends to rally 30–50% after 10Y yields peak, framing a duration-friendly backdrop (source: @DowdEdward). According to @DowdEdward, upside targets are outlined at 115–120 for the base case, 130–140 for the bull case, and 140+ in a risk-off scenario, with the setup characterized by heavy volume, accumulation, and flat price action (source: @DowdEdward).

According to @KobeissiLetter, foreign holdings of US Treasuries rose by $112.8 billion in November to a record $9.4 trillion, a milestone traders track for potential impacts on Treasury yields, the dollar, and crypto risk appetite including BTC and ETH. According to @KobeissiLetter, China’s Treasury holdings fell by $6.1 billion to $682.6 billion, the lowest since 2008, a shift that traders watch for changes in demand composition and cross border flows relevant to liquidity conditions. According to @KobeissiLetter, Belgium’s reported Treasury holdings include Chinese custodial exposure, which traders consider when interpreting regional holder changes.

According to @KobeissiLetter, Denmark’s holdings of US Treasuries have dropped to about $9 billion, the lowest level in 14 years. According to @KobeissiLetter, the country reduced its position by roughly $4 billion over the last year, about 30%. According to @KobeissiLetter, holdings are now more than half below the 2016 peak, signaling a continued drawdown in this foreign holder’s UST exposure.

According to @KobeissiLetter citing U.S. Treasury TIC data, EU investors hold a record 10 trillion in U.S. assets, with about 6 trillion in U.S. equities or roughly 58 percent of EU holdings and about 2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, per U.S. Treasury TIC data. This concentration indicates EU cross border flows can influence U.S. equity liquidity and Treasury demand, per U.S. Treasury TIC data and Federal Reserve research on foreign investor effects on yields. For crypto traders, IMF research shows rising comovement between Bitcoin and U.S. equities, implying EU reallocations between equities and Treasuries can transmit to BTC and ETH through risk appetite and financial conditions, per IMF analysis and Federal Reserve Financial Stability assessments. Key watchpoints are TIC flow releases and moves in U.S. yields as signals for potential spillovers to crypto, per U.S. Treasury TIC data and IMF research.

According to @lisaabramowicz1, Apollo’s Torsten Slok highlighted that foreign demand for US assets was more robust in 2025 than in 2024, countering fears of a mass exodus from the dollar, which is a key macro input for FX, rates, and crypto positioning; source: @lisaabramowicz1 on X, Dec 29, 2025. For flow verification and tracking, traders should reference the U.S. Treasury’s Treasury International Capital (TIC) system, which measures net foreign purchases of Treasuries, agencies, corporate debt, and equities to gauge overseas appetite for USD assets; source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, TIC System. Stronger foreign buying typically supports the USD and can anchor Treasury term premia by absorbing duration supply, shaping DXY and yield dynamics that influence global risk appetite; source: Federal Reserve Board research on term premia and demand effects, BIS Quarterly Review on global dollar funding. For crypto, BTC has historically exhibited periods of negative rolling correlation with DXY, meaning USD strength can coincide with softer BTC performance; source: Coin Metrics correlation datasets and research. Actionably, monitor DXY levels, U.S. 10Y yields, and the monthly TIC release calendar to adjust USD exposure and crypto beta, especially BTC and USD pairs sensitive to dollar liquidity; source: ICE Data Indices (DXY methodology), U.S. Treasury TIC calendar, Coin Metrics correlation monitors.

According to @ki_young_ju, BTC faces a more bearish setup, and a strong recovery is unlikely for the next 3–6 months until macro liquidity returns in 2025. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He emphasizes that macro dollar liquidity matters more than the on-chain cycle, noting tightening liquidity and ongoing selling in risk assets likely persisting until liquidity eases next year. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He adds that both market and on-chain metrics show weak liquidity now and that the classic on-chain bull cycle has ended. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He notes a sharp bounce toward around 100K is possible, but if that level does not break, the probability of another lower low increases. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He cites Luke Gromen’s view that a large US fiscal deficit and weakening foreign demand for Treasuries could leave the Treasury market unstable without fresh liquidity, implying scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin should move higher when liquidity returns next year; he aligns with this view. Source: @ki_young_ju citing @LukeGromen on X, Nov 21, 2025. Trading implications: prioritize dollar-liquidity signals over on-chain cycle, monitor Treasury market stress, treat 100K as pivotal resistance, and expect range or downside until a clear liquidity inflection in 2025. Source: synthesis of @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025.

According to @KobeissiLetter, foreign official US Treasuries held in Federal Reserve custody fell to $2.78 trillion in October, the lowest level since 2012 (source: @KobeissiLetter). Foreign official holdings in Fed custody have decreased by $166 billion since March and are down $356 billion from the 2021 peak, indicating weakening foreign demand for US debt and increased diversification away from US Dollar assets (source: @KobeissiLetter). Gold has been a key beneficiary of this rotation, consistent with reserve managers diversifying away from US debt (source: @KobeissiLetter). Traders should monitor US Treasury yield moves and gold flows for positioning as this decline in official custody holdings underscores softer marginal demand for Treasuries and shifting reserve preferences (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to @business, US Treasuries ended the week essentially flat as bulls and bears fought to a draw, with conflicting private-sector labor data leaving expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut in limbo (source: Bloomberg). The absence of a clear policy signal kept the rates outlook uncertain, offering no fresh directional cue for rate-sensitive risk assets, including BTC and ETH (source: Bloomberg).

According to @paoloardoino, Tether now holds 135 billion dollars in U.S. Treasuries, ranking as the 17th-largest holder of U.S. government debt and surpassing South Korea. Source: Paolo Ardoino on X, Oct 29, 2025. For traders, the reported scale aligns with Tether’s disclosures that U.S. Treasuries are a primary component of USDT reserves, underscoring sizable liquid backing that can support redemption capacity and market liquidity during volatility. Sources: Paolo Ardoino on X, Oct 29, 2025; Tether reserve attestations.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the US Treasury–bitcoin parity is set at 1.4 million dollars per BTC, shared on X on Oct 3, 2025. Source: https://twitter.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1974204794274525395. The post cites a reference from IIICapital but provides no methodology or supporting data beyond the parity figure. Source: https://x.com/IIICapital/status/1974135826843120064. For traders, the source post frames 1.4 million dollars as a long-term valuation reference rather than an immediate trading signal, as it includes no timeframe, catalysts, or risk parameters. Source: https://twitter.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1974204794274525395.

According to @stonecoldpat0, the US policy appeal of USD stablecoins is to expand the buyer base for US Treasuries rather than to transition everything into stablecoins and then devalue them, which would also devalue USD itself; source: @stonecoldpat0. He calls the devaluation narrative scaremongering and asserts stablecoins are positioned to gain significant market share in coming years, with USD enjoying a head start due to market forces; source: @stonecoldpat0. For traders, his view points to tracking stablecoin market share and demand for T-bills as indicators for on-chain USD liquidity conditions that underpin crypto trading activity; source: @stonecoldpat0.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the worst bear market in US Treasuries alongside the post-Ukraine weaponization of USTs has accelerated a rotation into hard assets, with gold’s share of international reserves at multi-decade highs (source: @Andre_Dragosch). He states Bitcoin’s correlation to US Treasuries has collapsed to record lows while global banks, sovereign wealth funds, and institutions disclosed meaningful allocations to Bitcoin ETFs via 13F filings, signaling growing institutional adoption that matters for liquidity and price discovery (source: @Andre_Dragosch). He highlights three trading-relevant advantages of BTC versus gold in a bond-focused portfolio: lower interest-rate sensitivity, tendency to outperform gold on down days for Treasuries, and reduced portfolio volatility and drawdowns when small BTC allocations are added to sovereign bond exposures (source: @Andre_Dragosch). He adds that while gold remains the stronger hedge versus equity risk, BTC is increasingly treated as an alternative reserve asset and a sovereign bond hedge, with examples including discussions by the Czech National Bank on BTC as a diversifier, Brazil’s proposal for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and a US Executive Order that set a framework for digital assets (all as reported by @Andre_Dragosch) (source: @Andre_Dragosch). Trading takeaway: monitor BTC–UST correlation regimes, track 13F-reported ETF flows for positioning signals, and consider small BTC sleeves as a hedge to duration drawdowns in sovereign bond portfolios while maintaining gold for equity-hedge characteristics (source: @Andre_Dragosch).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, US Treasury bonds are no longer the de facto safe-haven asset and the world is transitioning to a new global monetary regime, challenging the traditional “intelligent investor” paradigm; source: Andre Dragosch on X, Sep 3, 2025. He adds that “intelligent” company valuation methods will likely return, implying recent dislocations are regime-driven rather than fundamentals-led; source: Andre Dragosch on X, Sep 3, 2025. For traders, this view signals a need to reassess bond-based hedges and safe-haven assumptions when managing crypto and equity risk exposure; source: Andre Dragosch on X, Sep 3, 2025.

According to @rovercrc, the latest Federal Reserve minutes note that payment stablecoins may enhance payment efficiency and increase demand for U.S. Treasuries, highlighting growing policy awareness of their role in financial plumbing; Source: @rovercrc citing Federal Reserve minutes. For traders, broader acceptance of payment stablecoins implies potential growth in USDT and USDC reserves that are primarily invested in short-dated U.S. Treasuries, which historically coincides with deeper crypto liquidity and improved risk transfer; Source: Tether reserve attestations, Circle USDC reserve reports, Glassnode research on the Stablecoin Supply Ratio. Key signals to monitor include net issuance of USDT and USDC, aggregate stablecoin market cap and exchange balances, and BTC and ETH liquidity trends relative to stablecoin inflows; Source: Kaiko research on stablecoin flows and market depth.

According to Milk Road, Ethereum (ETH) compares favorably with BTC, gold, and U.S. Treasuries by offering a bond-like staking yield, faster on-chain settlement than card networks, 24/7 trading, programmability, and no centralized custodian or issuer, source: Milk Road. Ethereum provides protocol-level staking rewards paid in ETH to validators, giving holders a native yield if they stake, while Bitcoin (BTC) has no protocol-level staking or native yield, sources: Ethereum.org Staking; Bitcoin.org Developer Guide. Ethereum transactions achieve on-chain finality within minutes under proof-of-stake, whereas Visa’s network authorizes payments instantly for consumers but clears and settles net positions between issuers and acquirers on a next-day basis in ordinary course, sources: Ethereum.org documentation on finality; Visa Inc. Form 10-K. The Ethereum network operates continuously and supports programmable smart contracts for decentralized applications, enabling 24/7 on-chain activity and self-custody at the protocol level, sources: Ethereum.org What is Ethereum; Ethereum.org Accounts. U.S. Treasuries offer market-determined yields and defined auction/settlement schedules, and major traditional markets run on set trading hours, giving ETH a contrasting 24/7 settlement and programmable yield profile for traders to compare across assets, sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury Yield Curve and Auction Calendar; NYSE Trading Hours; Ethereum.org Staking.

According to @paoloardoino, Tether ranks among the top 18 holders of U.S. Treasuries, is within the top 40 holders of physical gold, and holds more than 100,000 BTC, highlighting large and diversified reserves that underpin USDT’s backing; source: @paoloardoino on X on Aug 10, 2025. According to @paoloardoino, this mix of Treasuries, gold, and BTC suggests USDT liquidity is supported by sovereign debt plus hard-asset exposure while introducing direct sensitivity to BTC price moves—key for traders assessing stablecoin risk and crypto market liquidity; source: @paoloardoino on X on Aug 10, 2025. According to @paoloardoino, traders should watch U.S. yields, gold prices, and BTC volatility as drivers that can influence Tether’s reserve valuation and perceived stability in crypto markets; source: @paoloardoino on X on Aug 10, 2025.

According to @KobeissiLetter, stablecoins now hold $149 billion in US Treasuries, ranking as the 18th-largest external holder. These holdings have increased by approximately $58 billion, or 64 percent, since Q1 2023. During the same period, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has doubled to a record $240 billion. This significant growth in Treasury-backed reserves highlights the increasing institutional confidence in stablecoins and signals deeper integration between crypto and traditional finance. For crypto traders, these trends suggest enhanced market liquidity and growing demand for stablecoin-based trading pairs, which could impact price stability and trading volumes across major cryptocurrencies (Source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to @KobeissiLetter, stablecoins now hold $149 billion in US Treasuries, making them the 18th-largest external holder. Since Q1 2023, these holdings have increased by approximately $58 billion, a 64% rise. During the same period, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has doubled to a record $240 billion. This rapid growth highlights the increasing integration of stablecoins with traditional financial instruments and provides added liquidity and stability to the broader cryptocurrency market, potentially supporting trading activity and investor confidence.

According to @rovercrc, Tether has reported a net profit of $4.9 billion for Q2 and now holds $127 billion in US Treasuries, making it one of the largest global holders. This significant profit and treasury accumulation highlight Tether's growing financial influence and stability, which could further strengthen confidence in USDT and affect stablecoin demand and trading volumes across crypto markets. Traders should monitor USDT flows, as Tether's expanding reserves may impact liquidity and risk perceptions in both centralized and DeFi markets (source: @rovercrc).